The meadow and the tree shadow are different reported encounters. Keep their evidence separate.
THE USEFUL ANSWER
Meadow bonds are reported. A guaranteed route is not established.
Players in the fourth bonding discussion describe blue bonds in the meadow, alongside unsuccessful attempts. The reviewed blue Wiki still labels meadow bonds unconfirmed and emphasizes the shadow branch. We link both accounts so you can inspect the disagreement.
No reviewed official source establishes a guaranteed trigger. Encounter rates from volunteer reports depend on who recorded attempts and what they chose to submit. We do not turn those figures into a personal prediction.
Does a missing shadow rule out a meadow blue?
These are separate reported locations. A missing tree option does not describe what happened on a different meadow branch. Match the report to the current scene before borrowing advice.
Does the official FAQ publish color odds?
It confirms that every color and tail type is possible. It does not provide their probabilities or a fixed blue-dragon answer sequence.
